Quite a few commentators in Albion have begun to wonder whether the floor of this dastardly depressive economic well is about to be reached. With only a candle to see in the chasm of this black hole they feel about, fumbling for the blessed green shoots of ‘recovery in the darkness. Let’s leave aside the infamy of trying to return to a 2006 dominated by casino gamblers and the madness of their corrupt type of capitalism force-fed upon us.
Is the bottom here? The sages (who, almost to a man) see the return of credit slightly in the money markets. They see a slight increase in mortgage lending. They see that investors may just be feeling that is the right time to buy back. A thin smile can be seen on their faces. Unfortunately (or fortunately) they are like canaries in a mine who, bless, are feeling a bit light headed.
The bottom is not here. They do not understand that the ‘growth’ of the last few years was fuelled by debt. This debt fuelled demand but they do not recognise debt as a part of demand. So they ignore the decline in debt and thus credit that driven the fake growth of the last few years. As the debt-financing declines so unemployment rises. Without the debt financing a lot of the economic organs in our economy are clottted with debris of credit gluttony. Worse still, because we have abandoned creativity for financial gambling in the UK, we lack the capacity to engage in productive innovation that may lead to real recovery. Only when we realise that we can’t go back to 2006 and more importantly, we do not wish to, will the real seeds of economic recovery be planted.
In the mean time, enjoy the chocolate before it melts like the confidence we have in our financial system.